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Forex Fundamental
Analysis
One of the two major strategies when trading
foreign currency is through the use of what is
known as fundamental analysis. Loosely defined,
it is the approach based on studying current
events, political and financial policy trends,
and overall economic movement. In general
traders using this technique are usually
interested in long-term trades when trying to
create returns. Economic conditions and
environments are the major factor in determining
the potential movements or upcoming trends that
fundamental traders will use to not only predict
future valuations of currencies, but also
correct present values as well. Unfortunately
one of the downfalls of fundamental trading is
that during periods of little activity, and
quite markets it is hard to find any useful
data. Fundamental analysis itself is broken down
into two broad subcategories, capital flows, and
trade flows.
Tracking Balance of
Payments
These study the demand of a currency over a
given period of time, which is also known as the
balance of payments. Capital flows are the net
amount of currency being bought or sold through
capital investments, which can include anything
from foreign direct investments, joint ventures,
third party licensing agreements, equity market
investments, and fixed income market
investments. The first three types of
investments mentioned are physical flows of
capital that can reflect the financial stability
and economic growth of a country and its
currency. The latter two are the flow of more
common portfolio investments and international
government bonds.
Trade Flows
The second type of fundamental analysis is trade
flows, measuring imports and exports of a nation
and its impact on the valuation of its currency.
International trade plays a large role in the
forex market, since importers must sell currency
in order to purchase foreign goods or services.
It is a one of the first ways used to understand
the changes in exchange rates, and still among
the most predictable ways to study the value of
currencies. Net importers, or countries that run
trade deficits traditionally experience
devaluation of their currency, while those that
run trade surpluses increase the value of
theirs. The balance between trading partner and
their affect on international trade transfer to
the balance of payments and capital flows.
Monitoring Global
Events
Fundamental traders follow global events, and
their impacts on international investments. This
makes both political relations, as well as
financial status important to the trade process.
Any changes in the relationship of one country’s
government with another’s can effect the pricing
of any currency pair in the forex market. Thus
when using fundamental analysis it is important
to stay abreast of current breaking news in
order to produce profits. |