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The primary factors that influence exchange
rates are the balance of international payments
for goods and services, the state of the
economy, political developments as well as
various other psychological factors. In
addition, fundamental economic forces such as
inflation and interest rates will constantly
influence currency prices. In addition Central
banks sometimes participate in the FOREX market
by buying extremely large sums of one currency
for another - this is referred to as Central
Bank intervention. Central banks can also
influence currency prices by changing their
country's short-term interest rate to make it
relatively more or less attractive to
foreigners. Any of these broad-based economic
conditions can cause sudden and dramatic
currency price swings. The fastest moves,
however, occur usually when information is
released that is unexpected by the market at
large. This is a key concept because what drives
the currency market in many cases is the
anticipation of an economic condition rather
than the condition itself.
Activities by professional currency managers,
generally on behalf of a pool of funds, have
also become a factor moving the market. While
professional managers may behave independently
and view the market from a unique perspective,
most, if not all, are at least aware of
important technical chart points in each major
currency. As the market approaches major
'support' or 'resistance' levels, price-action
becomes more technically oriented and the
reactions of many managers are often predictable
and similar. These market periods may also
result in sudden and dramatic price swings.
Traders make decisions on both technical factors
and economic fundamentals. Technical traders use
charts to identify trading opportunities whereas
fundamentalists predict movements in exchange
rates by interpreting a wide variety of data,
which range from breaking news to economic
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