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Banks
The interbank market caters for both the
majority of commercial turnover as well as
enormous amounts of speculative trading every
day. It is not uncommon for a large bank to
trade billions of dollars on a daily basis. Some
of this trading activity is undertaken on behalf
of customers, but a large amount of trading is
also conducted by proprietary desks, where
dealers are trading to make the bank profits.
The interbank market has become increasingly
competitive in the last couple of years and the
god-like status of top foreign exchange traders
has suffered as the equity guys are back in
charge again. A large part of the banks' trading
with each other is taking place on electronic
brooking systems that have negatively affected
the traditional foreign exchange brokers.
Interbank Brokers
Until recently, the foreign exchange brokers
were doing large amounts of business,
facilitating interbank trading and matching
anonymous counterparts for comparatively small
fees. Today, however, a lot of this business is
moving onto more efficient electronic systems
that are functioning as a closed circuit for
banks only. Still, the broker box providing the
opportunity to listen in on the ongoing
interbank trading is seen in most trading rooms,
but turnover is noticeably smaller than just a
year or two ago
Customer Brokers
For many commercial and private clients, there
is a need to receive specialised foreign
exchange services. There is a fair amount of
non-banks offering dealing services, analysis
and strategic advice to such clients. Many banks
do not undertake trading for private clients at
all, and do not have the necessary resources or
inclination to support medium sized commercial
clients adequately. The services of such brokers
are more similar in nature to other investment
brokers and typically provide a
service-orientated approach to their clients.
Investors and Speculators
As in all other efficient markets, the
speculator performs an important role taking
over the risks that commercial participants do
not wish to be exposed to. The boundaries of
speculation are unclear, however, as many of the
above mentioned participants also have
speculative interests, even some of the central
banks. The foreign exchange markets are popular
with investors due to the large amount of
leverage that can be obtained and the ease with
which positions can be entered and exited 24
hours a day. Trading in a currency might be the
"purest" way of taking a view on an overall
local market expectation, much simpler than
investing in illiquid emerging stock markets.
Taking advantage of interest rate differentials
is another popular strategy that can be
efficiently undertaken in a market with high
leverage.
Commercial Companies
The commercial companies' international trade
exposure is the backbone of the foreign exchange
markets. Protection against unfavourable moves
is an important reason why these markets are in
existence, although it sometimes appears to be a
chicken and egg situation - which came first and
which produces the other? Commercial companies
often trade in sizes that are insignificant to
short term market moves, however, as the main
currency markets can quite easily absorb
hundreds of millions of dollars without any big
impact. But it also clear that one of the
decisive factors determining the long-term
direction of a currency's exchange rate is the
overall trade flow. Some multinational companies
can have an unpredictable impact when very large
positions are covered, however, due to exposures
that are not commonly known to the majority of
market participants.
Central Banks
The national central banks play an important
role in the foreign exchange markets.
Ultimately, the central banks seek to control
the money supply and often have official or
unofficial target rates for their currencies. As
many central banks have very substantial foreign
exchange reserves, the intervention power is
significant. Among the most important
responsibilities of a central bank is the
restoration of an orderly market in times of
excessive exchange rate volatility and the
control of the inflationary impact of a
weakening currency. Frequently, the mere
expectation of central bank intervention is
sufficient to stabilise a currency, but in case
of aggressive intervention the actual impact on
the short term supply/demand balance can lead to
the desired moves in exchange rates. It is by no
means always that a central bank achieves its
objectives, however. If the market participants
really wants to take on a central bank, the
combined resources of the market can easily
overwhelm any central bank. Several scenarios of
this nature were seen in the 1992-93 ERM
collapse and in more recent times South East
Asia.
Hedge Funds
Hedge funds have gained a reputation for
aggressive currency speculation in recent years.
There is no doubt that with the increasing
amount of money some of these investment
vehicles have under management, the size and
liquidity of foreign exchange markets is very
appealing. The leverage available in these
market allow such fund to speculate with tens of
billions at a time and the herd instinct that is
very apparent in hedge fund circles means that
getting Soros and friends on your back is less
than pleasant for a weak currency and economy.
It is unlikely, however, that such investments
would be successful if the underlying investment
strategy was not sound and therefore it is
argued that hedge funds actually perform a
beneficial service by exploiting and exposing
unsustainable financial weaknesses, forcing
realignment to more realistic levels. |