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Technical analysis
is the preferred short-term trading method.
Technical traders base their study of the
foreign currency market on historical pricing of
currencies, using graphs and charts to plot
real-time data. Integration of past prices,
volume data, and exchange rates are taken and
formed into trends that can be followed. Like
fundamental analysis, there are several ways to
go about using technical analysis to create a
strategy for currency trading. It also takes
into account the psychological trends of buyers
and sellers, which are more apparent in
short-term pricing. The driving force of greed
and fear of instability are easy indicators of
future pricing possibilities of currencies.
Time horizons
for technical trading can be broken down in
charts, graphs and studies from as small as a
single minute, to as long as a monthly basis.
Like most other markets, forex trading places
more weight on select types of technical
analysis. Among the most popular indicators are
Fibonacci Retracement Levels, Oscillators,
Candlestick analysis, and Bollinger Bands.
Retracement series are based on mathematical
ratios, but more specifically, Fibonacci sets
are created by summing the two preceding figures
in a series of numbers. The interesting features
lie within the ratios and means of these series
that are constant, which are important since
they describe how far a price has moved from its
underlying trends. It will then help in hedging
against risk for currency price pairs.
Oscillators
are moving averages of prices, which are
analyzed over a period of time. When using them,
it is more useful to take shorter time periods
as it will reflect a estimated price that is
close to actual present values of currencies
then when using long time spans. Oscillators are
not utilized as the best way to predict changes
in trends, but rather signal appropriate times
to buy and sell. When a specific exchange rate
moves above its moving average price this should
be a trigger to buy, but when it falls below the
average, it is a selling indicator. Within
moving averages, two types can be identified:
Simple moving averages that are basic
mathematical calculations dividing closing
prices by the number of time periods, and
Exponentially Smoothed moving averages that are
weighted by taking into account the average of
the prior day.
Candlestick Chart
The third type of chart is a candlestick chart
that maps the high, low, open and close prices
of a currency pair in a single wick. The graph
itself is a form of a bar graph, and contains a
series of bars (wicks) that depict market
fluctuations. The difference between the open
and close bid is marked by a change in color,
green for close above the open price, red for
the opposite.
Bollinger Bands
Finally Bollinger Bands show the volatility of a
currency using moving average envelopes in a
statistical manner. Standard deviation levels
are set and are generally movement in prices
contained within 95% of two bands. Technical
analysis, though accurate and scientific in
nature, it requires an understanding of
mathematical theories to best develop trade
strategies. |